States like Texas, Colorado, Oregon, and Arizona are already moving ahead with their own psychedelic therapy programs—they don't wait for the federal government. By the end of 2026, at least two additional states will formally introduce (file) new bills creating veteran-only psychedelic therapy programs. This counts bills filed, even if they don't pass, because state-level momentum is real and separate from federal drug scheduling.
State legislative momentum is documented and decoupled from federal scheduling for ketamine and advancing for psilocybin. 'Introduce' (bill filing) is a low but falsifiable bar. Confidence is reasonable given existing state-level activity in TX, CO, OR, and AZ. Slightly trimmed from 0.81 because 'introduce' can be gamed by single legislators with no committee support—but the prediction still carries real informational value.