Ibogaine works for some addictions but harms the heart. Companies and researchers testing ibogaine know this. By November 2026, at least one major company or academic lab will publicly announce they're shifting their main focus to safer versions—like oxa-noribogaine, a chemical cousin without the heart damage. They'll say this out loud in a press release or research announcement because the cardiac risk makes ibogaine hard to sell to regulators and patients.
Original prediction ('functionally redirect primary development') was too vague and unmeasurable. Sharpened to a falsifiable corporate or institutional announcement. Cardiac risk data is a genuine commercial and regulatory forcing function. 18-month window from today reaches November 2026. Confidence reduced from 0.81 to reflect that legacy ibogaine programs have sunk costs and may continue in parallel rather than pivot.