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No ibogaine product achieves FDA approval before 2030

Predicted 2026-04-29 · Resolves 2030-01-01 · regulation · USA
84%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
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Ibogaine is a plant compound that some people use to treat addiction, but it can damage your heart in serious ways — causing dangerous irregular heartbeats. The FDA (the US drug regulator) won't approve it as medicine until someone runs long, careful studies proving it's safe for the heart. Those studies don't exist yet and probably won't be done by 2030.

Multiple independent reviews confirm QT prolongation and ventricular arrhythmia risk from ibogaine. FDA approval requires longitudinal cardiac safety data from adequately powered trials, which do not yet exist and cannot be generated within the timeline given current trial enrollment rates. Cardiac monitoring as a regulatory floor is not speculative — it is already reflected in existing IND conditions. Base rate: no novel Schedule I psychedelic has ever reached NDA approval. The claim is falsifiable: approval or non-approval by 2030-01-01.

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