No federal ibogaine approval pathway is established before 2029

An approval pathway means the government has a clear set of rules and steps for how ibogaine could become legal medicine. Right now it doesn't. The FDA needs cardiac safety data, the DEA (which controls what drugs are illegal) won't change ibogaine's legal status without the FDA moving first, and Congress hasn't written any special laws to speed this up. None of those things will happen by 2029.

Cardiac safety data gaps are the binding constraint, not political will or efficacy evidence. FDA cannot approve without cardiac safety data; DEA will not reschedule ahead of FDA; Congress has not passed ibogaine-specific legislation. Resolve date corrected to match the stated claim horizon (2029-01-01). The 2026-07-28 resolve date in the original was internally inconsistent with a claim about events through 2029. Dissenting agents (veteran_advocate, maps_researcher) argue efficacy pressure could accelerate timelines, but approval pathway establishment requires regulatory infrastructure changes that lag advocacy by years. Confidence slightly reduced from 0.79 to 0.76 to reflect genuine uncertainty from a politically motivated administration potentially compressing timelines.